A screen displays the company logo for Toast Inc. during the company’s initial public offering at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City on Sept. 22, 2021.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Economic concerns are hitting the stock market broadly, but they’re having an outsized impact on fintech companies that are tied closely to consumer spending and small and medium-sized businesses.
While the Nasdaq fell 2.1% on Thursday, putting the tech-heavy index on pace for its worst week since September, shares of Shift4, Toast and Bill.com suffered much steeper drops, losing 6.7%, 6.2% and 4%, respectively.
President Donald Trump’s disjointed rollout of his trade policy, most notably with threats on tariffs that change by the day, has rattled markets this month. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that the Trump administration is more focused on the long-term health of the economy, adding that he’s “not concerned about a little bit of volatility over three weeks.”
Fintech stocks tend to be more volatile than traditional banks and lenders, as investors jump in when risk tolerance is high and exit when the mood turns more conservative. Barclays predicts that President Trump’s higher tariff policies could lower U.S. GDP and raise inflation in the near term, resulting in an additional interest rate cut this year.
Shift4, which provides payment processing technology, has dropped 19% this year after Thursday’s slide, almost double the losses in the Nasdaq and more than triple the percentage decline for the S&P 500. The stock sank 17% on a single day in February after the company issued a forecast that trailed analysts’ estimates.
At the same time as its earnings report, Shift4 announced that it was buying payments platform Global Blue for an equity value of $1.5 billion, which is equal to about one-fifth of Shift4’s current market cap. Analysts at DA Davidson lowered their price target on Shift4 after the deal to $124 from $140 “to reflect the acquisition integration and financial leverage risks.”
Toast, whose payments technology is popular in restaurants and cafes, has had a dismal month, falling 15% so far in March, compared to the Nasdaq’s 8% decline. The company reported better-than-expected results in February, but the stock fell anyway.
Following a doubling in market cap last year and a big swing to profitability, analysts at Piper Sandler said Toast now has the “challenging task of topping 2024.”
The competitive fintech landscape is leading to increased scrutiny around margins and growth sustainability. Affirm, whose buy now, pay later loan products face heightened competition, dropped almost 4% on Thursday, bringing the stock’s loss for the year to 23%.
Bill.com provides spend and expense software to many small businesses. The company has struggled to regain footing after a brutal post-earnings selloff that saw the shares plummet 36% on weak guidance. The shares fell another 4% on Thursday and are now down by almost half in 2025.
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